Veteran advisor Dr. Helmut Marko has shared his opinion on who he perceives as the favourite to win the F1 world championships this season, as Red Bull embark upon their 2025 campaign with a new line-up comprising Max Verstappen and Liam Lawson.
Although it was easier to predict an early pecking order after pre-season testing in the previous years, the task has emerged to be significantly difficult this season with multiple top teams seemingly in close proximity with regard to performance. Nonetheless, the general consensus among F1 pundits is that McLaren holds an edge as all ten teams gear up for the season opener in Melbourne next week.
In an exclusive interview with RTL/ntv and sport.de, Marko opened up about the challenge that not only McLaren but also Ferrari and Mercedes pose to Red Bull as Verstappen looks to claim his fifth consecutive drivers’ title.
He also explained why he is still optimistic about the potential of the RB21 after pre-season testing and what he believes their performance deficit is in comparison to their biggest rival. Furthermore, the Austrian also addressed why he expects the Milton Keynes outfit to benefit from the intra-team rivalry at McLaren.
Marko expects a three-way or four-way battle for the championship
Although he singled out McLaren as the clear favourite heading into the first race of 2025, the Austrian expects the F1 world championship to evolve into a closely contested battle among three or four teams as the season progresses.
Refusing to label the impressive short and long runs of McLaren during testing as alarming, Marko acknowledged the progress Red Bull have made over the course of the winter break.
“In my opinion, it will be a three-way or four-way battle between McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and us.
“Although, if you look at the test results, McLaren already has an advantage. That was the case in both the short and the long runs.
“That’s not yet alarming. We have made progress, but the current favourite is clearly McLaren.”
What Red Bull’s gap to McLaren really is
In terms of the advantage McLaren currently have over Red Bull, Marko stated that estimating a number is rather difficult given that the unusual weather conditions in Bahrain limited running time. Nevertheless, he acknowledged the MCL39’s superior tyre wear on the final day of testing and revealed that they were lagging behind McLaren in the long runs by two to three tenths.
“It’s hard to say exactly what it looks like, because the weather conditions were completely out of the ordinary. It was cold, there was strong wind; it even rained.
“It was only the case on Wednesday, when we were on a par with McLaren. But on Friday, on the last day, I would say that our gap in the long run is currently still two to three tenths. On top of that, McLaren’s tyre wear was also significantly better than our data indicated.”
Intra-team rivalry at McLaren could benefit Red Bull and Verstappen
Although Lando Norris fared better than his teammate Oscar Piastri during pre-season testing, Marko anticipates the Aussie to challenge the Brit consistently in the upcoming season, with Red Bull benefitting from the teammate rivalry.
“If you look at the test in Bahrain, it is Lando Norris who coped significantly better than Oscar Piastri. But I believe that this was only a Bahrain phenomenon.
“I estimate that Piastri is equally strong and I hope that the two will take points away from each other and that we will benefit from that.”
Despite acknowledging the upper hand that McLaren have with a car that adapts really well to many different track conditions, Marko underscored the downside of having two number one drivers and remarked that Verstappen, as the undisputed leader of Red Bull, would be able to capitalise on the competition.
“Max [Verstappen] is the clear number one for us, and I don’t think Piastri will voluntarily accept the number two role. We saw that last season: on certain tracks, he was on a par with, if not faster than, Lando [Norris].
“But the advantage is that McLaren currently has a car again that—taking Bahrain as an example—can handle any type of tyre and any temperature very well.”
Marko not disappointed with the RB21 and counts on Verstappen
Marko confessed that he would’ve been delighted to see the work they had done over the course of the winter break bear fruit immediately as Red Bull embark upon their 2025 F1 campaign. However, he also emphasised that he was “not disappointed” with their new single-seater.
The 81-year-old recognised the positive traits that the RB21 displays, especially its predictability, in comparison to its challenging predecessor, and added that there is room for improvement with subsequent upgrades.
“It would have been nice if our adaptations and innovations had worked straight away.
“But the car is more predictable. The car reacts to technical things the way it should. It’s not this arbitrariness that we had last year.”
Some of the new parts have worked, “some have not”, commented the Austrian.
“That means there is still room for development and improvement with the existing material.”
Despite not having the fastest car on average last year, Verstappen managed to convincingly defeat Norris and defend his title. Referring to his innate talent and the ability to persevere in the face of strong competition, Marko remarked that he counts on the Dutchman to come out on top even if the RB21 fails to establish itself as the best machinery this season.
“So if the car is not optimal, then we have the ace up our sleeve, Max, who then has to bring his driving brilliance into play.
“With the car, McLaren is the favourite everywhere.”
Co-author: Lena Ferle
