On 27 March 2025, Red Bull announced a shocking decision that polarised the F1 community. Starting from the Japanese GP onwards, Yuki Tsunoda will take the second Red Bull seat with Liam Lawson taking the former’s post in Racing Bulls.
The decision to swap the drivers was based on Lawson’s poor start to his first full season. The Kiwi driver struggled to adapt to the RB21 and blamed the limited time to get to know his machinery. Tsunoda is enjoying a good start to the season, but not had much luck with the strategy.
Pundits and industry peers have been discussing whether this move will help both team or not. But this case is much more complex than you think.
The history of the “cursed” Red Bull second seat
The second Red Bull seat has been dubbed “cursed” as neither of Max Verstappen’s teammates was able to hold weight to the Dutchman. It dates as early as 2019, way before Tsunoda and Lawson entered the picture.
Pierre Gasly was the first to experience the roller coaster ride of being next to Verstappen. Red Bull promoted the Frenchman following the departure of Daniel Ricciardo. Gasly had a difficult start to the season and was swapped in favor of the rising Toro Rosso driver Alex Albon.
Albon performed strongly as the season went on and was on course to take his first career podium in Brazil before Lewis Hamilton tagged him out. Horner tipped Albon to keep Verstappen on his toes, but sadly, that was not the case.
Albon’s start to the 2020 season was a bit underwhelming for a Red Bull driver. Gasly took his first career victory at the Italian Grand Prix while Albon finished P15. The Thai driver infamously radioed, “they race me so hard” at the Eifel GP. In the end, Red Bull dropped Albon from the main team and signed Sergio Pérez from 2021.
The Mexican’s stock was at an all-time high following a stellar season with Racing Point where he took his first career victory at the Sakhir Grand Prix. He took his first Red Bull win in Azerbaijan and collected a couple more podiums after. Pérez’s finest moment came at the season finale where he assisted Verstappen’s first WDC title when he defended against Hamilton.
Pérez’s results became wildly inconsistent in 2022 and 2023 despite collecting four more career victories. People started questioning his ability to challenge or help Verstappen, and Red Bull opted to part ways at the end of 2024, with Lawson taking the spot.
Meet our protagonists
Yuki Tsunoda entered F1 in 2021 after contesting the F2 season the year before and was an impressive P3 in the standings. Tsunoda already met Lawson in F3 in 2019 and became teammates when they competed in the 2020 Toyota Racing Series. Tsunoda became the first Japanese F1 driver since Kamui Kobayashi in 2014.
Tsunoda’s early years in F1 were not exactly pleasant. He was constantly plagued by reliability or pace issues with the AlphaTauri. Lawson began to make a name for himself when he competed in F2 and DTM.
Lawson introduced himself to F1 when he replaced the injured Ricciardo in 2023, debuting at the Dutch GP. He scored his first F1 points at the Singapore GP with P9, which at the time was the team’s best finish. Tsunoda ended the race with a retirement.
The pair became permanent teammates in late 2024 after Lawson replaced Ricciardo from that year’s Singapore GP. Lawson’s stint was not exactly flashy compared to his first appearance. He only finished in the points twice, with P9s in the US GP and São Paulo. From his promotion, Lawson took 2 points to Tsunoda’s 8 points thanks to the latter’s P7 finish in São Paulo.
While Tsunoda has kept his fiery temper in check and improved his performance as the years went by, it was not enough to convince Red Bull to give him the second seat. Red Bull boss Christian Horner said Lawson had a “higher ceiling” based on his two super-sub appearances and noted that there was little to separate the two.
Commitment and politics
Tsunoda questioned Red Bull’s commitment to keeping him in the program following Lawson’s candidacy for the role to replace Pérez. The Japanese driver said it was all “politics” when it comes to Red Bull.
“There’s not much reasons to point out why they don’t want to put me in the Red Bull. So, yeah, I hope I’m in that mix, and if not, I don’t know what I should do more than this, to be honest.“
“I’ll just keep pushing and things I can control. And those things, the Red Bull seat, they decide everything. I’m sure if I’m in the seat, I can fight for a higher Constructors’ Championship [position] and [give them] what they want. But, other things, politics things. They decide what they want.“
In an exclusive interview with TalkSport, Horner is not afraid to label Verstappen as the “lead driver” in Red Bull and said it would be nice if there is a teammate that can challenge him. In that same interview, he also revealed Tsunoda’s reaction to spending another season at the junior team.
“We’re perhaps slightly different from other teams where it’s about communication and being up front with the drivers, and we go, ‘Max Verstappen is the most valuable asset in Formula 1, he’s our lead driver, if you can get close to him, fantastic.’ But the reality is, the expectation is for Max to win.
“I spoke to him [Tsunoda] a short while ago and he’s more motivated than ever. He wants to prove us wrong, obviously. And as I said to him, this sport moves so quickly. This industry moves so quickly that he just needs to keep doing a great job in the Racing Bulls team.”
Countdown to disaster
Lawson said Verstappen took care of the car set-up so he could focus on learning the circuits. The duo soon concluded that the RB21 “lacked pace” during the free practice sessions of the Australian GP. Lawson qualified in P18 and started the race from the pit lane due to parc fermé infringement.
Lawson’s Red Bull debut ended on the barriers after he slipped during the rain phase. Meanwhile, Tsunoda is thriving after a P5 in qualifying and keeping Hamilton in the Ferrari at bay during the race. Despite a strategy error, Horner and Dr. Helmut Marko gave their praise to Tsunoda.
Lawson knew the time was ticking and he needed to pick up the pace, and fast. However, the Chinese GP was anything but.
He started last in the race while Tsunoda started from P9. It was another painful outing for both drivers, with the former unable to show good performance and the latter once again hampered by strategy and a front wing issue.
At that moment, Lawson’s fate was sealed. Dutch website De Limburger, dropped a major hint that Tsunoda’s backer and Red Bull’s engine supplier, Honda, has paid the 8-figure sum to get him that seat.
Signing Lawson was a “mistake”, and the other factors
From the Japanese GP onwards, Lawson and Tsunoda will be swapping seats. Marko explained the reasoning behind this switch to OE24:
“In Australia, he [Lawson] had a turbo failure in the third practice session. The time he lost on track as a result took its toll on him.
“What he has shown so far has clearly been too little. We need a strong second driver, if only to enhance the team’s strategy.
“Yuki was too inconsistent, which is why we unanimously chose Lawson. However, under increased pressure, he failed to deliver from the first day in Australia. Then he descended into a downward spiral. It’s like a battered boxer; it’s very difficult to get out of it. In that sense, it was a mistake.”
In an interview with the BBC, the Austrian thinks Lawson will not have a resurgence in Suzuka, a track where he once competed in Super Formula.
“Suzuka, yes, is a very difficult circuit, it’s a driver circuit. But we were worried that his self-confidence was so damaged that he couldn’t bring his normal performance.”
In an interview with De Telegraaf, Marko said a lack of practice time and growing pressure, coupled with a “difficult” car, were also contributing factors to making the switch so early in the season.
“Liam has had a lot of bad luck. During the test days in Bahrain, he missed a lot of time due to mechanical problems. And he also lost important time during the third free practice in Australia.
“The pressure on him became greater and greater. He lost confidence, tried harder and harder, but made more mistakes as a result. In China, things went from bad to worse. In addition, our car is very difficult to drive and is not the fastest.”
Tsunoda is the Red Bull man now
On Tsunoda, Marko said he is now ready to be a Red Bull Racing driver. The veteran advisor also revealed that the plan was to keep Tsunoda until the end of the season.
“Tsunoda made a big step. But in this case, with a very difficult car, experience is something which will help. That was our thoughts.“
“Yuki has had his ups and downs, but has matured. He worked hard in the winter and he has become physically stronger. He changed his management [and] he is far more mature.”
“Until the end of the season, because we believe he can do the job.”
The key reactions to Lawson’s demotion
Verstappen himself was reported against the Lawson and Tsunoda swap, showing the Dutchman’s influence in Red Bull was not as massive as hinted.
Red Bull’s image became even more tainted when Verstappen liked an Instagram post by former Caterham F1 driver Giedo van der Garde, who accused Red Bull of “bullying” Lawson:
“Yes, you gotta perform. Yes, the pressure is insane. But in my opinion, this comes closer to bullying or a panic move than actual high athlete achievements.
“They made a decision, fully aware [and] gave Liam two races only to crush his spirit. Don’t forget the dedication, hard work and success Liam has put in his career so far to achieve the level where he is now.
“Perhaps he has suggested this [switch] himself, but if not, I wish Liam all the strength and courage to get to the grid in Japan. Trust yourself, get your head up, prove them wrong.“
Former Toro Rosso F1 driver, Jaime Alguersuari, also expressed dismay at the decision.
“Liam is not as bad as he looks. You could expect that he was going to struggle at the beginning of the season, and he wouldn’t have been as bad as the season went by.”
Not all figures are sympathizing with Lawson, though. The 1997 F1 champion Jacques Villeneuve applauded the decision and said Lawson “set himself up“.
“You have to bear in mind that he [Lawson] came into F1 very arrogant.
“He came into F1 last year saying how amazing he would be and he had an attitude. When the results don’t come, it makes everybody react even stronger.
“It’s actually the worst result ever in a Red Bull car. So, he’s paying his own price there. He set himself up in a way.“
What’s next for Lawson and Tsunoda?
By this point, both Lawson and Tsunoda already knew that being part of the Red Bull program, you are expected to deliver results from day one.
Ultimately, they had been put in a difficult spot. On one side, the former has ticked all the boxes that he deserved the Red Bull seat. Yet, it is also unfair to completely write off the latter after two difficult races.
In this scenario, you are promoting the deserving driver way too late and demoting the dejected driver at his lowest point.
Questions also arise that Red Bull cracks have begun to show for their favoritism to Verstappen, the circumstances of Tsunoda’s promotion while Red Bull is still trying to figure out their car, which coincides with Racing Bulls’ competitive package at the start of the season.
Lawson and Tsunoda are professionals, they knew the world won’t wait for you when it comes to F1 — either perform or you’re out.
Both men will look forward to a new day in their F1 career, starting with this week’s Japanese GP.
